Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Election Predictions

2010. Republicans do well in these elections. Democrat lead in the Senate is dented and the house is spilt almost 50-50. This is caused by anger over Health Care Bill and apathy amongst younger voters turned off by incrementary change instead of radical change.

2012. Obama will be re-elected (barring a foreign policy crisis) by a comfortable margin. This will be spurred moderate but steady economic growth (though unemployment will still be at about 8% and dampen his support), and chaos in the Republican Primary.
The Health Care Bill will in this election generate more votes for democrats than against, despite or perhaps because of Republican focus on this issue. Supporters gained from the Health Care Bill will be the currently uninsured because of poverty or pre-existing conditions, those affected by an touching ad campaign: ObamaCare Success Stories, and surprisingly Insurance Companies*. Votes lost will be those who were uninsured because they didn’t want to pay for insurance. Ironically Republican action after the 2010 elections will decrease this last group and drive insurers into the pro-Obama camp. They will take legal and legislative action to make the fines small and often unenforced.

2014. The big story this election is going to be a growing and uncontrolled government deficit caused by Social Security, Higher rates on Treasury bonds, and medicare. The higher rates will be caused by Social Security no longer loaning money to the Treasury (helping to drive those rates down) and by better investment opportunities elsewhere.
Also there will be anger over the fact that the economy seems to have stabilized into a pattern of steady growth and 7-8% unemployment. I see regular party politics being disrupted by independent movements within and without the parties. How exactly these disruptions go down will determine who wins in 2014, but both parties will attempt to court these groups covertly without actually adopting any of their planks.
The Health Care bill will not play into this election except as a minor note in the anti-deficit narrative. I.e it will not cause significant numbers to vote differently than they would have done.
One of those disrupting groups will be an anti-immigration anti-globalization crowd. They will do well this year but in many ways this will be the last hurrah for them for a while – until they re-emerge in a decade or two with substantial numbers of non-whites in their platform. However I expect the main effect of their efforts will be targeted industry protection, blocking amnesty (in 2013 or 2015), and a slight uptick in deportations.

*Regulations and subsidies are generally good news for an industry. These increase their market and will help the entrenched powers who can more quickly comply with regulatory procedures. Maybe not so good for taxpayers.

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